Scenarios & pathways

The aim of MEDEAS is to provide an open access tool to guide EU society in achieving a low carbon economy by 2050. The 2050 goal is to obtain a reduction of 80% of the 1990 carbon emissions (https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en).. MEDEAS traces the different pathways to the 2050 goal by considering or suggesting alternative outcomes, assessing their feasibility and desirability. The totality of this different pathways is called in general Scenarios.  

Within MEDEAS, we called them Transition Scenarios, because we focussed on anticipatory scenarios, in which the achievement of goal drives the present policies and decisions, according to the MEDEAS objective of reaching the Energy Transition from fossil fuels to Renewable Energy Source (RES) as soon as possible.

Thus we developed three levels of scenarios within MEDEAS: 

Business As Usual Scenario (BAU): In this scenario no new policy is introduced, so is a projection of the present environmental and economic trends. 

Optimal Transition Scenario (OT): This scenario is described by a set of actions employing the maximum possible effort: the transition is accomplished taking the RES deployment as a social priority in which all socio-economic sectors contribute to the renewable transition. This scenario contemplates the fastest rate of RES implementation possible, only limited by physical constraints. 

Mid-Level Transition Scenarios (MLT): set of actions describing the alternative pathway to OT, in which the actions to reduce the carbon emissions are supposed to be delayed in 2020 and 2030, so that MLTs result in possible less efficient ways, to achieve the goal. 

For each of the above class of Scenarios, an analysis of the implications and repercussions on the main five economic sectors, named electricity, transportation, residential and commercial, industry, social welfare and environmental impact costs, are considered.

Figure 1: Ilaria Perissi and Sara Falsini present the results obtained in Deliverable 3.2: Transition scenarios at MEDEAS meeting in Brnö